Ten years after the UK entered into a hurried referendum that polarised the country and caused turmoil, a advisory comes from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking upheavals for which no one is prepared.
That is the message from two leading commentators from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Not Ready
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a possibly fraught and transformative public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum rapidly," the commentator remarked. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our islands remains extremely volatile."
New Title Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The team have studied the governmental, economic and societal rationales for any governmental shift in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the issue with a tour of lectures that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts all parties, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a binary, unclear proposal whose implications have remained undefined because then you land with an highly divided society where the losing side are not reconciled to defeat and the people who have won don't know quite what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue this point is approaching, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the likelihood, leaving it unclear when or if there might be a referendum.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Partisan language for and against unification has masked the shortage of substantive discussion, stated McBride.
"Many are for or against the notion but the actual thinking which may surpass that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has gone on in academia but hardly any politicians or activists seek to involve themselves with even the basics. As an example, what type of nation would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the book, none of the commentators supports unification or the existing arrangement. Each writes two essays that strive for neutrality in detailing the rationale for a unified Ireland and the case against, assembling financial and social statistics, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Debates encompass national emblems, duties, medical care, pensions, public liabilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to inform and stimulate dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," commented O’Toole. "Discussion indicates an acceptance of the idea that there may exist good arguments on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where the electorate say they support unity but oppose greater financial contributions or introducing a alternative symbol to reflect pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to establish what the proposal from Irish nationalism is beyond just stating: 'We want a united Ireland and we welcome you'," stated the commentator.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride considers a referendum in his lifetime is probable and that it could happen suddenly. "There might be just a reckless or a poor or a incompetent government minister who says: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, justified perspectives, he commented. "One side will win here and the other side will eventually lose but each side has possesses something to gain from the alternative arguments."
Appeal for More Extensive Debate
Westminster needed to engage with the discussion, urged the analyst. "This involves Britain. It's a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish matter."
